INTRADE: Alito to be nominated
Intrade shares of Alito are trading at 46.0 (bid/ask spread is 46/56). Luttig is trading at 20, a distant second. Intrade's markets have an impressive record of predicing these things, but hasn't hit...
View ArticleBetting Odds Favor Dems in NJ and VA
I've been peeking over at Intrade and, as of 1:49 a.m., the Democrats are favoried in both races. In New Jersey, Jon Corzine is trading at a bid of 89.0 while Forrester is stuck at 7.1. In Virginia,...
View Article2006 SENATE RACE POLITICAL MARKET "PRICES"
One of the things I like to look at when trying to get a sense of who is winning an election is a website called Intrade (www.intrade.com). Basically, the website is a "market" in which buyers and...
View ArticleIntrade futures on election day looking better for Senate, still out of sync
See my earlier post on the election futures market and their accuracy here: http://www.dailykos.com/... Read about latest quotes below the break:
View ArticleMovement on InTrade Betting Exchange
As I've written about in the past on this website, InTrade (Previously Tradesports) is a betting exchange that estimates probabilities of different outcomes based on the collective wisdom of its...
View ArticleAl Gore is the most 'electable' at 98%, say the Online Odds Markets
I don't like to bet (esp. with money), except for a rare lottery ticket or two and a rarer slot machine playing for fun. But, I happened to check the online betting site Intrade for the 2008 election...
View ArticleAre Presidential Futures Markets Being Manipulated?
As a numbers geek of sorts, I follow the presidential futures markets closely, most notably at Intrade and to a lesser extent the Iowa Electronic Markets. For better or for worse, these markets have...
View ArticleDick Armey: Hillary has the nomination wrapped up.
He also predicts she will win the general unless Republicans see the light and return to the true faith of Reaganism. This prediction about Clinton will be dismissed with howls of rage here by those...
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NEW POLLs: Obama +6 in SC, +8 in Iowa, -1 in NH, InTrade, Carol Shea-Porter...
It has certainly been an interesting week. The O trains seems to be trucking along with seemingly nothing able to stop it. Recent polls out of the early states show Obama up six in South Carolina, up...
View ArticleVote for Edwards to Nominate Hillary
Over at OpenLeft Chris Bowers has posted the latest in his "Nomination at a Glance" series. This is the money part: I will say, however, that I think the Edwards rise in Iowa has slightly improved his...
View ArticleObama Passes 50% in Intrade for First Time (aside from briefly after Iowa)
(Cross posted at BareNaked Pundits) It's Super Tuesday, and I admit it... I'm dying for some exit polls. In the past, we've usually seen some start to leak before the polls closed. Often as early as...
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Obama's futures are up HUGE!
I swore to myself that I wouldn’t write a diary championing one candidate over another. I tried to keep this diary neutral but it is very interesting to see how people are investing/betting with real...
View ArticleThe (Betting) Money is on Barack
No, not that money. Today we're talking Prediction Markets. Come to your own conclusion on their validity versus traditional polling, but for good or ill, they are a snapshot of how the street sees the...
View ArticleFabulous investment opportunity!!
The Intrade prediction market currently has Hillary pegged at a 6.1% chance to become the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, and Obama at 81% to become the Presidential nominee. This means that...
View ArticleFutures markets say Hillary to quit THIS friday?
This was diaried earlier, but I have new substance to add A rumor is spreading that Hillary Clinton will avoid humiliation and drop out this Friday, FEBRUARY 29th. Lending creedence to this rumor is...
View ArticleIntrade predictions and fluctuations on Obama vs. Clinton
There are many different ways to follow or be involved in this primary season. The Daily Kos site is read by a lot of activists who do a great deal of work on behalf of our candidate of choice. Part of...
View ArticleElectoral Map Projection, Intrade Style-Updated
With the ink nearly dry on the presidential nominating process, the time has come to begin focusing on the general election. To that end, for several months now I have been periodically checking on the...
View ArticleIntrade: Webb in the lead for VP
During the long primary campaign, one of my favorite browser bookmarks was the Intrade futures market on presidential nominees. For those who aren’t familiar with it, Intrade allows you to buy and...
View ArticleLive From Tehran! I talk to Press TV about the Probability Iran is Bombed by...
I thought this was pretty interesting. InTrade the 'prediction markets' site has a contract for the probability of Bush bombing Iran by September or December. I had a chance to discuss and analyze...
View ArticleBetting on War with Iran IIb - Geneva, Solana, Gallach, Keiser and Rattansi
Video: Betting on War with Iran IIb - Geneva, Solana, Gallach, Keiser and Rattansi TRANSCRIPT: Afshin Rattansi: Well joining me now is the broadcaster and journalist, Max Keiser, who is in Paris. Max,...
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